Kurt Nicklas
2008-08-28 09:31:40 UTC
Georgia War Shows 'Weak' Russia, U.S. Official Says
By Glenn Kessler
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, August 28, 2008; Page A14
Russia's conflict with Georgia is the sign of a "weak" Russian nation,
not a newly assertive one, and Moscow now has put its place in the
world order at risk, the top U.S. diplomat for relations with the
country said in an interview yesterday.
"There is a Russia narrative that 'we were weak in the '90s, but now
we are back and we are not going to take it anymore.' But being angry
and seeking revanchist victory is not the sign of a strong nation. It
is the sign of a weak one," said Daniel Fried, assistant secretary of
state for European and Eurasian affairs.
"Russia is going to have to come to terms with the reality it can
either integrate with the world or it can be a self-isolated bully.
But it can't be both. And that's a choice Russia has to have," Fried
said.
After Georgian forces moved into the separatist enclave of South
Ossetia early this month, Russian troops attacked Georgian military
installations and moved close to Georgia's capital before partially
pulling back. This week, Moscow recognized the breakaway regions of
South Ossetia and Abkhazia, a move the United States and European
nations condemned as undermining Georgian sovereignty.
U.S. policymakers have debated whether and how Russia should be
punished for its incursion into Georgia. Already, a civil nuclear deal
between Russia and the United States appears dead in Congress, and
Russia's 13-year effort to join the World Trade Organization is in
trouble. Russian officials in recent weeks have disparaged such
concerns -- Prime Minister Vladimir Putin this week said he sees "no
advantages" to joining the WTO -- but U.S. officials predict Russia
will suffer if it becomes isolated.
U.S. officials and their allies have begun to suggest that Russia
cannot blame any fallout from the Georgia attack on U.S. actions.
"They are kind of giddy. They will need to sober up," said a senior
U.S. official, insisting on anonymity because his remarks were
diplomatically impolite. "When they sober up, they will see that it is
not the U.S. that has done things to them; it's that they have done
things to themselves."
Similarly, in a speech yesterday in Kiev, Ukraine, British Foreign
Secretary David Miliband said: "Today Russia is more isolated, less
trusted and less respected than two weeks ago. It has made military
gains in the short term. But over time, it will feel economic and
political losses."
Miliband noted that Russia's foreign exchange reserves have fallen by
$16 billion and risk premiums for investing in Russia have soared
since the crisis began. By contrast, when the Soviet Union attacked
Czechoslovakia in 1968, "no one asked what impact its actions had on
the Russian stock market. There was no Russian stock market."
Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, has
advocated removing Russia from the Group of Eight industrialized
democracies. Miliband dismissed that yesterday as a "knee-jerk" call
for action, though some Russian political figures have also begun to
question whether Russia needs to stay in the G-8.
Yesterday, in a joint statement, the foreign ministers of the other
seven members -- the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Canada,
Japan and Italy -- said they "condemn the action of our fellow G8
member" to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia, adding that "Russia's
decision has called into question its commitment to peace and security
in the Caucasus."
Vice President Cheney, speaking to an American Legion convention in
Phoenix yesterday, condemned Russia's "unjustifiable assault" on
Georgia. "The Georgian people won their freedom after years of
tyranny, and they can count on the friendship of the United States,"
he said.
"Three American presidents -- Bush, Clinton and Bush -- have all in
their own way sought to encourage Russia's integration with the wider
world. This is a good thing. It was the right set of policies," Fried
said. "Russia has now put all of that at risk, because Russian cannot
simultaneously behave like the Soviet Union toward its neighbors like
this is 1968 and act as if it is 2008 when it comes to the WTO."
Fried said the administration is determined to prevent Russia from
claiming a new sphere of influence in the Caucasus. He added: "There
are areas where we have common interest with Russia and we want to
work with them. The question is whether Russia has an ability to work
with us."
In the interview, Fried did not excuse Georgia's initial actions,
saying U.S. officials told Georgian officials they could not win a war
with Russia. "Georgia is a flawed democracy, a democracy in
construction. You don't help them by whitewashing their problems or
defending a bad decision. But you don't want it crushed," he said.
By Glenn Kessler
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, August 28, 2008; Page A14
Russia's conflict with Georgia is the sign of a "weak" Russian nation,
not a newly assertive one, and Moscow now has put its place in the
world order at risk, the top U.S. diplomat for relations with the
country said in an interview yesterday.
"There is a Russia narrative that 'we were weak in the '90s, but now
we are back and we are not going to take it anymore.' But being angry
and seeking revanchist victory is not the sign of a strong nation. It
is the sign of a weak one," said Daniel Fried, assistant secretary of
state for European and Eurasian affairs.
"Russia is going to have to come to terms with the reality it can
either integrate with the world or it can be a self-isolated bully.
But it can't be both. And that's a choice Russia has to have," Fried
said.
After Georgian forces moved into the separatist enclave of South
Ossetia early this month, Russian troops attacked Georgian military
installations and moved close to Georgia's capital before partially
pulling back. This week, Moscow recognized the breakaway regions of
South Ossetia and Abkhazia, a move the United States and European
nations condemned as undermining Georgian sovereignty.
U.S. policymakers have debated whether and how Russia should be
punished for its incursion into Georgia. Already, a civil nuclear deal
between Russia and the United States appears dead in Congress, and
Russia's 13-year effort to join the World Trade Organization is in
trouble. Russian officials in recent weeks have disparaged such
concerns -- Prime Minister Vladimir Putin this week said he sees "no
advantages" to joining the WTO -- but U.S. officials predict Russia
will suffer if it becomes isolated.
U.S. officials and their allies have begun to suggest that Russia
cannot blame any fallout from the Georgia attack on U.S. actions.
"They are kind of giddy. They will need to sober up," said a senior
U.S. official, insisting on anonymity because his remarks were
diplomatically impolite. "When they sober up, they will see that it is
not the U.S. that has done things to them; it's that they have done
things to themselves."
Similarly, in a speech yesterday in Kiev, Ukraine, British Foreign
Secretary David Miliband said: "Today Russia is more isolated, less
trusted and less respected than two weeks ago. It has made military
gains in the short term. But over time, it will feel economic and
political losses."
Miliband noted that Russia's foreign exchange reserves have fallen by
$16 billion and risk premiums for investing in Russia have soared
since the crisis began. By contrast, when the Soviet Union attacked
Czechoslovakia in 1968, "no one asked what impact its actions had on
the Russian stock market. There was no Russian stock market."
Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, has
advocated removing Russia from the Group of Eight industrialized
democracies. Miliband dismissed that yesterday as a "knee-jerk" call
for action, though some Russian political figures have also begun to
question whether Russia needs to stay in the G-8.
Yesterday, in a joint statement, the foreign ministers of the other
seven members -- the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Canada,
Japan and Italy -- said they "condemn the action of our fellow G8
member" to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia, adding that "Russia's
decision has called into question its commitment to peace and security
in the Caucasus."
Vice President Cheney, speaking to an American Legion convention in
Phoenix yesterday, condemned Russia's "unjustifiable assault" on
Georgia. "The Georgian people won their freedom after years of
tyranny, and they can count on the friendship of the United States,"
he said.
"Three American presidents -- Bush, Clinton and Bush -- have all in
their own way sought to encourage Russia's integration with the wider
world. This is a good thing. It was the right set of policies," Fried
said. "Russia has now put all of that at risk, because Russian cannot
simultaneously behave like the Soviet Union toward its neighbors like
this is 1968 and act as if it is 2008 when it comes to the WTO."
Fried said the administration is determined to prevent Russia from
claiming a new sphere of influence in the Caucasus. He added: "There
are areas where we have common interest with Russia and we want to
work with them. The question is whether Russia has an ability to work
with us."
In the interview, Fried did not excuse Georgia's initial actions,
saying U.S. officials told Georgian officials they could not win a war
with Russia. "Georgia is a flawed democracy, a democracy in
construction. You don't help them by whitewashing their problems or
defending a bad decision. But you don't want it crushed," he said.